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Bala Azul vs Águilas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bala Azul
Bala Azul
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Águilas II
Águilas II
1/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Complejo Deportivo Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bala Azul39%
×Draw31%
Águilas II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bala Azul
1.08
Águilas II
0.92

Bala Azul creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bala Azul
1.12
Águilas II
1.03

allows per match

Bala Azul
0.80
Águilas II
1.03

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par
Águilas II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

Águilas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw
70%
Bala Azul or Águilas II
69%
Draw or Águilas II
61%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+
16%
Águilas II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals
66%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
29%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
10%
Águilas II 1+ goals
60%
Águilas II 2+ goals
23%
Águilas II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)
56%
Águilas II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Águilas II away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + Águilas II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Águilas II attack 1.03 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bala Azul scores more
39%
level
31%
Águilas II scores more
30%

Bala Azul at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bala Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bala Azul 0–2 Águilas II

Águilas II beat Bala Azul 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Mazarrón in Mazarrón.