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Balıkesirspor vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Balıkesirspor
Balıkesirspor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
9/17/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundBalikesir Ataturk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Balıkesirspor19%
×Draw23%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balıkesirspor
0.95
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
1.83

Yalova Yeşilovaspor creates 93% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Balıkesirspor
1.22
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
2.33

allows per match

Balıkesirspor
1.33
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
0.67

finishing

Balıkesirspor+0.00on par
Yalova Yeşilovaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balıkesirspor ↓

Yalova Yeşilovaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Balıkesirspor or draw
42%
Balıkesirspor or Yalova Yeşilovaspor
77%
Draw or Yalova Yeşilovaspor
81%

Winning margin

Balıkesirspor wins by 2+
7%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Balıkesirspor 1+ goals
61%
Balıkesirspor 2+ goals
25%
Balıkesirspor 3+ goals
7%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1+ goals
84%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor 2+ goals
54%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Balıkesirspor (draw refunded)
25%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balıkesirspor at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Yalova Yeşilovaspor away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balıkesirspor attack 1.22 + Yalova Yeşilovaspor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.95

Yalova Yeşilovaspor attack 2.33 + Balıkesirspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Balıkesirspor scores more
19%
level
23%
Yalova Yeşilovaspor scores more
58%

Yalova Yeşilovaspor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Yalova Yeşilovaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balıkesirspor vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor

Yalova Yeşilovaspor beat Balıkesirspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 17, 2025.

The match was played at Balikesir Ataturk Stadyumu in Balikesir.