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Balıkesirspor vs Vanspor FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Balıkesirspor
Balıkesirspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
9/24/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBalıkesir Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Balıkesirspor65%
×Draw19%
Vanspor FK15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balıkesirspor
2.18
Vanspor FK
0.95

Balıkesirspor creates 129% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Balıkesirspor
1.22
Vanspor FK
0.57

allows per match

Balıkesirspor
1.33
Vanspor FK
3.14

finishing

Balıkesirspor+0.00on par
Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balıkesirspor ↓

Vanspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Balıkesirspor or draw
85%
Balıkesirspor or Vanspor FK
81%
Draw or Vanspor FK
35%

Winning margin

Balıkesirspor wins by 2+
42%
Vanspor FK wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Balıkesirspor 1+ goals
89%
Balıkesirspor 2+ goals
64%
Balıkesirspor 3+ goals
37%
Vanspor FK 1+ goals
61%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
25%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Balıkesirspor (draw refunded)
81%
Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balıkesirspor at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balıkesirspor attack 1.22 + Vanspor FK defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.18

Vanspor FK attack 0.57 + Balıkesirspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Balıkesirspor scores more
65%
level
19%
Vanspor FK scores more
15%

Balıkesirspor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Balıkesirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balıkesirspor vs Vanspor FK

Vanspor FK beat Balıkesirspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 24, 2019.

The match was played at Balıkesir Atatürk Stadyumu in Balıkesir.