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Balıkesirspor vs Amed — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Balıkesirspor
Balıkesirspor
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Amed
Amed
9/27/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBalıkesir Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Balıkesirspor65%
×Draw19%
Amed16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balıkesirspor
2.33
Amed
1.06

Balıkesirspor creates 120% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Balıkesirspor
1.22
Amed
0.78

allows per match

Balıkesirspor
1.33
Amed
3.44

finishing

Balıkesirspor+0.00on par
Amed+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balıkesirspor ↓

Amed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Balıkesirspor or draw
84%
Balıkesirspor or Amed
81%
Draw or Amed
35%

Winning margin

Balıkesirspor wins by 2+
43%
Amed wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Balıkesirspor 1+ goals
90%
Balıkesirspor 2+ goals
67%
Balıkesirspor 3+ goals
41%
Amed 1+ goals
65%
Amed 2+ goals
29%
Amed 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Balıkesirspor (draw refunded)
80%
Amed (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balıkesirspor at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Amed away — creates 0.78, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balıkesirspor attack 1.22 + Amed defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.33

Amed attack 0.78 + Balıkesirspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Balıkesirspor scores more
65%
level
19%
Amed scores more
16%

Balıkesirspor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Balıkesirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Balıkesirspor 5–0 Amed

Balıkesirspor beat Amed 5-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 27, 2018.

The match was played at Balıkesir Atatürk Stadyumu in Balıkesir.