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Balıkesirspor vs Alanya 1221 FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Balıkesirspor
Balıkesirspor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Alanya 1221 FK
Alanya 1221 FK
10/27/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBalıkesir Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Balıkesirspor53%
×Draw23%
Alanya 1221 FK24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balıkesirspor
1.86
Alanya 1221 FK
1.17

Balıkesirspor creates 59% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Balıkesirspor
1.22
Alanya 1221 FK
1.00

allows per match

Balıkesirspor
1.33
Alanya 1221 FK
2.50

finishing

Balıkesirspor+0.00on par
Alanya 1221 FK+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balıkesirspor ↓

Alanya 1221 FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Balıkesirspor or draw
76%
Balıkesirspor or Alanya 1221 FK
77%
Draw or Alanya 1221 FK
47%

Winning margin

Balıkesirspor wins by 2+
30%
Alanya 1221 FK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Balıkesirspor 1+ goals
84%
Balıkesirspor 2+ goals
55%
Balıkesirspor 3+ goals
28%
Alanya 1221 FK 1+ goals
69%
Alanya 1221 FK 2+ goals
33%
Alanya 1221 FK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Balıkesirspor (draw refunded)
69%
Alanya 1221 FK (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balıkesirspor at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Alanya 1221 FK away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balıkesirspor attack 1.22 + Alanya 1221 FK defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.86

Alanya 1221 FK attack 1.00 + Balıkesirspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Balıkesirspor scores more
53%
level
23%
Alanya 1221 FK scores more
24%

Balıkesirspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Balıkesirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balıkesirspor vs Alanya 1221 FK

Alanya 1221 FK beat Balıkesirspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Balıkesir Atatürk Stadyumu in Balıkesir.