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Bakhmaro vs Saburtalo II — Liga 3 2024

Bakhmaro
Bakhmaro
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Saburtalo II
Saburtalo II
8/29/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bakhmaro15%
×Draw25%
Saburtalo II59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bakhmaro
0.65
Saburtalo II
1.56

Saburtalo II creates 140% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

creates per match

Bakhmaro
0.57
Saburtalo II
1.36

allows per match

Bakhmaro
1.77
Saburtalo II
0.73

finishing

Bakhmaro+0.00on par
Saburtalo II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bakhmaro ↓

Saburtalo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–117%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bakhmaro or draw
41%
Bakhmaro or Saburtalo II
75%
Draw or Saburtalo II
85%

Winning margin

Bakhmaro wins by 2+
4%
Saburtalo II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Bakhmaro 1+ goals
48%
Bakhmaro 2+ goals
14%
Bakhmaro 3+ goals
3%
Saburtalo II 1+ goals
79%
Saburtalo II 2+ goals
46%
Saburtalo II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bakhmaro (draw refunded)
21%
Saburtalo II (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bakhmaro at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

Saburtalo II away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bakhmaro attack 0.57 + Saburtalo II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.65

Saburtalo II attack 1.36 + Bakhmaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bakhmaro scores more
15%
level
25%
Saburtalo II scores more
59%

Saburtalo II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Saburtalo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Bakhmaro 0–2 Saburtalo II

Saburtalo II beat Bakhmaro 2-0 in Liga 3 on August 29, 2024.