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Bakhmaro vs Guria — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Bakhmaro
Bakhmaro
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guria
Guria
3/23/2021David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bakhmaro16%
×Draw23%
Guria61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bakhmaro
0.80
Guria
1.79

Guria creates 124% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bakhmaro
0.60
Guria
1.57

allows per match

Bakhmaro
2.00
Guria
1.00

finishing

Bakhmaro+0.00on par
Guria+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bakhmaro ↓

Guria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bakhmaro or draw
39%
Bakhmaro or Guria
77%
Draw or Guria
84%

Winning margin

Bakhmaro wins by 2+
5%
Guria wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Bakhmaro 1+ goals
55%
Bakhmaro 2+ goals
19%
Bakhmaro 3+ goals
5%
Guria 1+ goals
83%
Guria 2+ goals
53%
Guria 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bakhmaro (draw refunded)
21%
Guria (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bakhmaro at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Guria away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bakhmaro attack 0.60 + Guria defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Guria attack 1.57 + Bakhmaro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bakhmaro scores more
16%
level
23%
Guria scores more
61%

Guria at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Guria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Bakhmaro 0–0 Guria

Bakhmaro and Guria drew 0-0 in David Kipiani Cup on March 23, 2021.