Pomorie 1–0 Dobrudzha: Result & Stats

Pomorie

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dobrudzha

B. Rasim 81'

10/6/2018

Second League · Round 10Gradski stadion (Nesebar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Pomorie33%

×Draw27%

Dobrudzha40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PomorieExpected goals in this matchDobrudzha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.33

Pomorie

1.17

Dobrudzha

1.33

Dobrudzha creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 101 away

0.94

creates per match

0.89

1.78

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Pomorie

0.94

Dobrudzha

0.89

allows per match

Pomorie

1.78

Dobrudzha

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pomorie+0.00on par

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorie ↓

Dobrudzha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pomorie or draw

60%

Pomorie or Dobrudzha

73%

Draw or Dobrudzha

67%

Winning margin

Pomorie wins by 2+

13%

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Pomorie 1+ goals

69%

Pomorie 2+ goals

33%

Pomorie 3+ goals

11%

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

74%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

38%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Pomorie (draw refunded)

45%

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorie at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorie attack 0.94 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Pomorie defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pomorie scores more

33%

level

27%

Dobrudzha scores more

40%

Dobrudzha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

I. Yanchev← Z. Zhekov

46'

R. Nikolov← D. Kadir

46'

T. Kolev← I. Dzhamov

76'

B. Rasim← L. Bozhinov

76'

V. Bozhinov← B. Tyutyukov

81'

B. Rasim

85'

K. Peshkov← Georgi Draganov Dimitrov

Pomorie

Dobrudzha

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Boyanov

46'▲I. Yanchev←▼Z. Zhekov

76'▲B. Rasim←▼L. Bozhinov

76'▲V. Bozhinov←▼B. Tyutyukov

Pomorie substitutes

YanchevRasimBozhinovTodorovKizhevStefanovTaushanov

Manager: D. Bozhilov

46'▲R. Nikolov←▼D. Kadir

46'▲T. Kolev←▼I. Dzhamov

85'▲K. Peshkov←▼Georgi Draganov Dimitrov

Dobrudzha substitutes

NikolovKolevPeshkovDonchevPetkovNikolaevShaban