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Bakaridjan vs USC Kita — Première Division 2019

Bakaridjan
Bakaridjan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
USC Kita
USC Kita
4/5/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 21Terrain AS Réal de Bamako

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bakaridjan40%
×Draw33%
USC Kita28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bakaridjan
1.01
USC Kita
0.79

Bakaridjan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bakaridjan
0.97
USC Kita
0.76

allows per match

Bakaridjan
0.83
USC Kita
1.05

finishing

Bakaridjan+0.00on par
USC Kita+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bakaridjan ↓

USC Kita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bakaridjan or draw
72%
Bakaridjan or USC Kita
67%
Draw or USC Kita
60%

Winning margin

Bakaridjan wins by 2+
15%
USC Kita wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bakaridjan 1+ goals
64%
Bakaridjan 2+ goals
27%
Bakaridjan 3+ goals
8%
USC Kita 1+ goals
55%
USC Kita 2+ goals
19%
USC Kita 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bakaridjan (draw refunded)
59%
USC Kita (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bakaridjan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.83 · 93 matches

USC Kita away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bakaridjan attack 0.97 + USC Kita defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

USC Kita attack 0.76 + Bakaridjan defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bakaridjan scores more
40%
level
33%
USC Kita scores more
28%

Bakaridjan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Bakaridjan 2–2 USC Kita

Bakaridjan and USC Kita drew 2-2 in Première Division on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Terrain AS Réal de Bamako in Bamako.