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Bakaridjan vs Réal Bamako — Première Division 2019

Bakaridjan
Bakaridjan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
12/27/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Bakaridjan30%
×Draw32%
Réal Bamako38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bakaridjan
0.85
Réal Bamako
0.99

Réal Bamako creates 16% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 99 away

creates per match

Bakaridjan
0.97
Réal Bamako
1.15

allows per match

Bakaridjan
0.83
Réal Bamako
0.74

finishing

Bakaridjan+0.00on par
Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bakaridjan ↓

Réal Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bakaridjan or draw
62%
Bakaridjan or Réal Bamako
68%
Draw or Réal Bamako
70%

Winning margin

Bakaridjan wins by 2+
10%
Réal Bamako wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bakaridjan 1+ goals
57%
Bakaridjan 2+ goals
21%
Bakaridjan 3+ goals
5%
Réal Bamako 1+ goals
63%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
26%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bakaridjan (draw refunded)
44%
Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bakaridjan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.83 · 93 matches

Réal Bamako away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bakaridjan attack 0.97 + Réal Bamako defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.85

Réal Bamako attack 1.15 + Bakaridjan defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bakaridjan scores more
30%
level
32%
Réal Bamako scores more
38%

Réal Bamako at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bakaridjan vs Réal Bamako

Bakaridjan and Réal Bamako drew 0-0 in Première Division on December 27, 2025.