Bakaridjan 0–3 Onze Créateurs: Result & Stats

Bakaridjan

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Onze Créateurs

5/14/2024

Première Division · Round 27Complexe Sportif Karounga Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Bakaridjan34%

×Draw33%

Onze Créateurs33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BakaridjanExpected goals in this matchOnze Créateurs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.90

Bakaridjan

0.92

Onze Créateurs

0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 97 away

0.97

creates per match

0.96

0.83

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Bakaridjan

0.97

Onze Créateurs

0.96

allows per match

Bakaridjan

0.83

Onze Créateurs

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Onze Créateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bakaridjan ↓

Onze Créateurs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bakaridjan or draw

67%

Bakaridjan or Onze Créateurs

67%

Draw or Onze Créateurs

66%

Winning margin

Bakaridjan wins by 2+

12%

Onze Créateurs wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bakaridjan 1+ goals

60%

Bakaridjan 2+ goals

23%

Bakaridjan 3+ goals

7%

Onze Créateurs 1+ goals

59%

Onze Créateurs 2+ goals

23%

Onze Créateurs 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bakaridjan (draw refunded)

51%

Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bakaridjan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.83 · 93 matches

Onze Créateurs away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bakaridjan attack 0.97 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Onze Créateurs attack 0.96 + Bakaridjan defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Bakaridjan scores more

34%

level

33%

Onze Créateurs scores more

33%

Bakaridjan at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff