Bakaridjan 2–1 Black Stars: Result & Stats

Bakaridjan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Black Stars

11/12/2022

Première Division · Round 3Stade De Barouéli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Bakaridjan44%

×Draw30%

Black Stars26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BakaridjanExpected goals in this matchBlack Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.85

Bakaridjan

1.21

Black Stars

0.85

Bakaridjan creates 42% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 67 away

0.97

creates per match

0.87

0.83

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Bakaridjan

0.97

Black Stars

0.87

allows per match

Bakaridjan

0.83

Black Stars

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bakaridjan ↓

Black Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bakaridjan or draw

74%

Bakaridjan or Black Stars

70%

Draw or Black Stars

56%

Winning margin

Bakaridjan wins by 2+

20%

Black Stars wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bakaridjan 1+ goals

70%

Bakaridjan 2+ goals

34%

Bakaridjan 3+ goals

12%

Black Stars 1+ goals

57%

Black Stars 2+ goals

21%

Black Stars 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bakaridjan (draw refunded)

63%

Black Stars (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bakaridjan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.83 · 93 matches

Black Stars away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bakaridjan attack 0.97 + Black Stars defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.21

Black Stars attack 0.87 + Bakaridjan defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bakaridjan scores more

44%

level

30%

Black Stars scores more

26%

Bakaridjan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff