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Bakaridjan vs ASKO — Première Division 2019

Bakaridjan
Bakaridjan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ASKO
ASKO
4/20/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 18Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Bakaridjan37%
×Draw33%
ASKO30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bakaridjan
0.96
ASKO
0.82

Bakaridjan creates 17% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 83 away

creates per match

Bakaridjan
0.97
ASKO
0.82

allows per match

Bakaridjan
0.83
ASKO
0.95

finishing

Bakaridjan+0.00on par
ASKO+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bakaridjan ↓

ASKO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Bakaridjan or draw
70%
Bakaridjan or ASKO
67%
Draw or ASKO
63%

Winning margin

Bakaridjan wins by 2+
14%
ASKO wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bakaridjan 1+ goals
62%
Bakaridjan 2+ goals
25%
Bakaridjan 3+ goals
7%
ASKO 1+ goals
56%
ASKO 2+ goals
20%
ASKO 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bakaridjan (draw refunded)
56%
ASKO (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bakaridjan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.83 · 93 matches

ASKO away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.95 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bakaridjan attack 0.97 + ASKO defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

ASKO attack 0.82 + Bakaridjan defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bakaridjan scores more
37%
level
33%
ASKO scores more
30%

Bakaridjan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bakaridjan vs ASKO

ASKO beat Bakaridjan 1-0 in Première Division on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.