Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baka City vs Nyasa Big Bullets — Super League 2026

Baka City
Baka City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
9/29/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baka City18%
×Draw29%
Nyasa Big Bullets53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baka City
0.62
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.28

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 106% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Baka City
0.67
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.23

allows per match

Baka City
1.33
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.57

finishing

Baka City+0.00on par
Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baka City ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–119%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Baka City or draw
47%
Baka City or Nyasa Big Bullets
71%
Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets
82%

Winning margin

Baka City wins by 2+
5%
Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Baka City 1+ goals
46%
Baka City 2+ goals
13%
Baka City 3+ goals
3%
Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
72%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
37%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Baka City (draw refunded)
26%
Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baka City at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.57 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baka City attack 0.67 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.62

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 1.23 + Baka City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Baka City scores more
18%
level
29%
Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
53%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baka City vs Nyasa Big Bullets

Nyasa Big Bullets beat Baka City 1-0 in Super League on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.