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Baka City vs Creck — Super League 2026

Baka City
Baka City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Creck
Creck
5/25/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baka City30%
×Draw31%
Creck39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baka City
0.92
Creck
1.09

Creck creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 35 away

creates per match

Baka City
0.67
Creck
0.86

allows per match

Baka City
1.33
Creck
1.17

finishing

Baka City+0.00on par
Creck+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baka City ↓

Creck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Baka City or draw
61%
Baka City or Creck
69%
Draw or Creck
70%

Winning margin

Baka City wins by 2+
11%
Creck wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Baka City 1+ goals
60%
Baka City 2+ goals
23%
Baka City 3+ goals
7%
Creck 1+ goals
66%
Creck 2+ goals
30%
Creck 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Baka City (draw refunded)
44%
Creck (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baka City at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Creck away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baka City attack 0.67 + Creck defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Creck attack 0.86 + Baka City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baka City scores more
30%
level
31%
Creck scores more
39%

Creck at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Creck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baka City vs Creck

Baka City and Creck drew 1-1 in Super League on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.