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Baka City vs CIVO United — Super League 2026

Baka City
Baka City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CIVO United
CIVO United
8/18/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baka City28%
×Draw29%
CIVO United43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baka City
0.91
CIVO United
1.20

CIVO United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 80 away

creates per match

Baka City
0.67
CIVO United
1.06

allows per match

Baka City
1.33
CIVO United
1.15

finishing

Baka City+0.00on par
CIVO United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baka City ↓

CIVO United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Baka City or draw
57%
Baka City or CIVO United
71%
Draw or CIVO United
72%

Winning margin

Baka City wins by 2+
10%
CIVO United wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Baka City 1+ goals
60%
Baka City 2+ goals
23%
Baka City 3+ goals
6%
CIVO United 1+ goals
70%
CIVO United 2+ goals
34%
CIVO United 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Baka City (draw refunded)
40%
CIVO United (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baka City at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

CIVO United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baka City attack 0.67 + CIVO United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.91

CIVO United attack 1.06 + Baka City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baka City scores more
28%
level
29%
CIVO United scores more
43%

CIVO United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CIVO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baka City vs CIVO United

Baka City and CIVO United drew 0-0 in Super League on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.