Baka City 1–3 Chitipa United: Result & Stats

Baka City

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Chitipa United

12/7/2024

Super League · Round 24Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baka City40%

×Draw31%

Chitipa United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baka CityExpected goals in this matchChitipa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.91

Baka City

1.10

Chitipa United

0.91

Baka City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 65 away

0.67

creates per match

0.48

1.33

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Baka City

0.67

Chitipa United

0.48

allows per match

Baka City

1.33

Chitipa United

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baka City+0.00on par

Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baka City ↓

Chitipa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Baka City or draw

70%

Baka City or Chitipa United

69%

Draw or Chitipa United

60%

Winning margin

Baka City wins by 2+

16%

Chitipa United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Baka City 1+ goals

67%

Baka City 2+ goals

30%

Baka City 3+ goals

10%

Chitipa United 1+ goals

60%

Chitipa United 2+ goals

23%

Chitipa United 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Baka City (draw refunded)

57%

Chitipa United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baka City at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baka City attack 0.67 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.10

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Baka City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baka City scores more

40%

level

31%

Chitipa United scores more

30%

Baka City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baka City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff