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Baka City vs Be Forward Wanderers — Super League 2026

Baka City
Baka City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Be Forward Wanderers
Be Forward Wanderers
8/1/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baka City18%
×Draw29%
Be Forward Wanderers52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baka City
0.64
Be Forward Wanderers
1.29

Be Forward Wanderers creates 102% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 82 away

creates per match

Baka City
0.67
Be Forward Wanderers
1.26

allows per match

Baka City
1.33
Be Forward Wanderers
0.61

finishing

Baka City+0.00on par
Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baka City ↓

Be Forward Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–119%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Baka City or draw
48%
Baka City or Be Forward Wanderers
71%
Draw or Be Forward Wanderers
82%

Winning margin

Baka City wins by 2+
5%
Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Baka City 1+ goals
47%
Baka City 2+ goals
14%
Baka City 3+ goals
3%
Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals
72%
Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals
37%
Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Baka City (draw refunded)
26%
Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baka City at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Be Forward Wanderers away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.61 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baka City attack 0.67 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.64

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.26 + Baka City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Baka City scores more
18%
level
29%
Be Forward Wanderers scores more
52%

Be Forward Wanderers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baka City vs Be Forward Wanderers

Be Forward Wanderers beat Baka City 2-0 in Super League on August 1, 2024.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.