Baka City 2–0 Bangwe All Stars: Result & Stats

Baka City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bangwe All Stars

6/29/2024

Super League · Round 9Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baka City36%

×Draw30%

Bangwe All Stars34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baka CityExpected goals in this matchBangwe All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.03

Baka City

1.07

Bangwe All Stars

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

0.67

creates per match

0.73

1.33

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Baka City

0.67

Bangwe All Stars

0.73

allows per match

Baka City

1.33

Bangwe All Stars

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baka City+0.00on par

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baka City ↓

Bangwe All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Baka City or draw

66%

Baka City or Bangwe All Stars

70%

Draw or Bangwe All Stars

64%

Winning margin

Baka City wins by 2+

14%

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Baka City 1+ goals

66%

Baka City 2+ goals

29%

Baka City 3+ goals

9%

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals

64%

Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals

28%

Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Baka City (draw refunded)

51%

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baka City at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Bangwe All Stars away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baka City attack 0.67 + Bangwe All Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.07

Bangwe All Stars attack 0.73 + Baka City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Baka City scores more

36%

level

30%

Bangwe All Stars scores more

34%

Baka City at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Baka City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff