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BAK '07 vs Viktoria Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

BAK '07
BAK '07
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Viktoria Berlin
Viktoria Berlin
2/28/2026Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 19Poststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

BAK '0769%
×Draw16%
Viktoria Berlin15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BAK '07
2.94
Viktoria Berlin
1.33

BAK '07 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

BAK '07
2.00
Viktoria Berlin
1.07

allows per match

BAK '07
1.60
Viktoria Berlin
3.87

finishing

BAK '07+0.00on par
Viktoria Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BAK '07 ↓

Viktoria Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

BAK '07 or draw
85%
BAK '07 or Viktoria Berlin
84%
Draw or Viktoria Berlin
31%

Winning margin

BAK '07 wins by 2+
49%
Viktoria Berlin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BAK '07 1+ goals
95%
BAK '07 2+ goals
79%
BAK '07 3+ goals
55%
Viktoria Berlin 1+ goals
74%
Viktoria Berlin 2+ goals
38%
Viktoria Berlin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

BAK '07 (draw refunded)
82%
Viktoria Berlin (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BAK '07 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

Viktoria Berlin away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BAK '07 attack 2.00 + Viktoria Berlin defence 3.87 → ÷2 → 2.94

Viktoria Berlin attack 1.07 + BAK '07 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

BAK '07 scores more
69%
level
16%
Viktoria Berlin scores more
15%

BAK '07 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "BAK '07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BAK '07 vs Viktoria Berlin

Viktoria Berlin beat BAK '07 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Poststadion in Berlin.