BAK '07 2–1 Tennis Borussia: Result & Stats

BAK '07

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tennis Borussia

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Poststadion KR5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

BAK '0737%

×Draw23%

Tennis Borussia40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BAK '07Expected goals in this matchTennis Borussia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.74

BAK '07

1.66

Tennis Borussia

1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

1.60

creates per match

1.88

1.60

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

BAK '07

1.60

Tennis Borussia

1.88

allows per match

BAK '07

1.60

Tennis Borussia

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BAK '07+0.00on par

Tennis Borussia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BAK '07 ↓

Tennis Borussia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

BAK '07 or draw

60%

BAK '07 or Tennis Borussia

77%

Draw or Tennis Borussia

63%

Winning margin

BAK '07 wins by 2+

18%

Tennis Borussia wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

BAK '07 1+ goals

81%

BAK '07 2+ goals

49%

BAK '07 3+ goals

23%

Tennis Borussia 1+ goals

82%

Tennis Borussia 2+ goals

52%

Tennis Borussia 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

BAK '07 (draw refunded)

48%

Tennis Borussia (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BAK '07 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Tennis Borussia away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BAK '07 attack 1.60 + Tennis Borussia defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Tennis Borussia attack 1.88 + BAK '07 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BAK '07 scores more

37%

level

23%

Tennis Borussia scores more

40%

Tennis Borussia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tennis Borussia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff