BAK 07 U19 3–3 Hertha Zehlendorf U19

BAK 07 U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

J. Kliti 90' (pen)

S. Akan 65'

A. Lubaki 33'

J. Hartl 77'

P. Behrend 67'

T. Fron 22'

11/12/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 9Poststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

BAK 07 U1935%

×Draw21%

Hertha Zehlendorf U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BAK 07 U19Expected goals in this matchHertha Zehlendorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.06

BAK 07 U19

1.83

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.06

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

2.03

creates per match

2.09

2.03

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.09

allows per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BAK 07 U19 ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

BAK 07 U19 or draw

56%

BAK 07 U19 or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

79%

Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

65%

Winning margin

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

18%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

84%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

54%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

28%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

87%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

61%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BAK 07 U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BAK 07 U19 attack 2.03 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.09 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

BAK 07 U19 scores more

35%

level

21%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

44%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

T. Fron

33'

A. Lubaki

53'

57'

65'

67'

68'

75'

77'

88'

90+3'

D.Kanyi← M. Mohammadi

90+4'

J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah← J. Hartl

90'

J. KlitiPenalty

BAK

Hertha

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Arsovic

75'▲A. Aksoy←▼N. Kardam

88'▲M. Kalini←▼O. Iraqi

90+3'▲D.Kanyi←▼M. Mohammadi

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

AksoyKaliniD.KanyiAkdağSevimKavurmaciogluKizmaz

Manager: M. Siebert

57'▲P. Behrend←▼W. Noack

68'▲J. Hartl←▼G. Didoss

90+4'▲J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah←▼J. Hartl

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

BehrendHartlNnaemeka-ChukwurahSolimanKarikaZdepGörlitz

U19 Bundesliga: BAK 07 U19 3–3 Hertha Zehlendorf U19

BAK 07 U19 and Hertha Zehlendorf U19 drew 3-3 in U19 Bundesliga on November 12, 2022.

Goals: T. Fron (22'), A. Lubaki (33'), S. Akan (65'), P. Behrend (67'), J. Hartl (77'), J. Kliti (90' pen).

The match was played at Poststadion in Berlin.

BAK 07 U19 vs Hertha Zehlendorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: BAK 07 U19 3–3 Hertha Zehlendorf U19