BAK 07 U19 2–3 Hannover 96 U19: Result & Stats

BAK 07 U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Hannover 96 U19

A. Lubaki 47'

J. Kliti 8' (pen)

M. Schmidt 90+4'

K. Brandt 52' (pen)

R. Dorra 27' (OG)

10/8/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 6Poststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

BAK 07 U1937%

×Draw21%

Hannover 96 U1942%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BAK 07 U19Expected goals in this matchHannover 96 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.05

BAK 07 U19

1.92

Hannover 96 U19

2.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 74 away

2.03

creates per match

2.07

2.03

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Hannover 96 U19

2.07

allows per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Hannover 96 U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BAK 07 U19 ↓

Hannover 96 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

BAK 07 U19 or draw

58%

BAK 07 U19 or Hannover 96 U19

79%

Draw or Hannover 96 U19

63%

Winning margin

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

20%

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

85%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

57%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

30%

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

87%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

61%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BAK 07 U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Hannover 96 U19 away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.81 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BAK 07 U19 attack 2.03 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.92

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.07 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

BAK 07 U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

42%

Hannover 96 U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. KlitiPenalty

27'

R. DorraOwn goal

47'

A. Lubaki

52'

K. BrandtPenalty

62'

M. Schmidt← J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz

64'

D.Kanyi← A. Akdağ

67'

O. Iraqi← T. Iraki

73'

A. Cankor← J. Videira

73'

N. Meier← K. Brandt

80'

C. Kavurmacioglu← S. Akan

80'

H. Berjaoui← M. Kalini

90+4'

M. Schmidt

BAK

Hannover

⚽

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Arsovic

64'▲D.Kanyi←▼A. Akdağ

67'▲O. Iraqi←▼T. Iraki

80'▲C. Kavurmacioglu←▼S. Akan

80'▲H. Berjaoui←▼M. Kalini

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

D.KanyiIraqiKavurmaciogluBerjaouiIpekYoussefKardam

Manager: D. Lottner

62'▲M. Schmidt←▼J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz

73'▲A. Cankor←▼J. Videira

73'▲N. Meier←▼K. Brandt

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

SchmidtCankorMeierWackerCollinsBöhmkerSzitai