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Baixa de Kassange vs Wiliete — Girabola 2019

Baixa de Kassange
Baixa de Kassange
FT
1 – 1
Wiliete
Wiliete
3/14/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 15Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baixa de Kassange36%
×Draw31%
Wiliete32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baixa de Kassange
1.01
Wiliete
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 99 away

creates per match

Baixa de Kassange
1.00
Wiliete
0.95

allows per match

Baixa de Kassange
0.93
Wiliete
1.02

finishing

Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par
Wiliete+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baixa de Kassange ↓

Wiliete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Baixa de Kassange or draw
68%
Baixa de Kassange or Wiliete
69%
Draw or Wiliete
64%

Winning margin

Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+
14%
Wiliete wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals
64%
Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals
27%
Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals
8%
Wiliete 1+ goals
61%
Wiliete 2+ goals
24%
Wiliete 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)
53%
Wiliete (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baixa de Kassange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Wiliete away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baixa de Kassange attack 1.00 + Wiliete defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Wiliete attack 0.95 + Baixa de Kassange defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Baixa de Kassange scores more
36%
level
31%
Wiliete scores more
32%

Baixa de Kassange at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Baixa de Kassange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Baixa de Kassange 1–1 Wiliete

Baixa de Kassange and Wiliete drew 1-1 in Girabola on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio in Malanje.