Baixa de Kassange 3–3 Bravos do Maquis FC

Baixa de Kassange

FT

3 – 3

Bravos do Maquis FC

2/13/2021

Girabola · Round 10Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baixa de Kassange37%

×Draw31%

Bravos do Maquis FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baixa de KassangeExpected goals in this matchBravos do Maquis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.94

Baixa de Kassange

1.04

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.94

Baixa de Kassange creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 106 away

1.00

creates per match

0.95

0.93

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Baixa de Kassange

1.00

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.95

allows per match

Baixa de Kassange

0.93

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baixa de Kassange ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Baixa de Kassange or draw

68%

Baixa de Kassange or Bravos do Maquis FC

69%

Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC

63%

Winning margin

Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+

15%

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals

65%

Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals

28%

Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals

9%

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals

61%

Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals

24%

Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)

54%

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baixa de Kassange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baixa de Kassange attack 1.00 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + Baixa de Kassange defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Baixa de Kassange scores more

37%

level

31%

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more

32%

Baixa de Kassange at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Baixa de Kassange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff