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Baixa de Kassange vs Académica do Lobito — Girabola 2019

Baixa de Kassange
Baixa de Kassange
FT
0 – 1
Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
1/16/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 4Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baixa de Kassange44%
×Draw30%
Académica do Lobito26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baixa de Kassange
1.16
Académica do Lobito
0.81

Baixa de Kassange creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

creates per match

Baixa de Kassange
1.00
Académica do Lobito
0.68

allows per match

Baixa de Kassange
0.93
Académica do Lobito
1.32

finishing

Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par
Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baixa de Kassange ↓

Académica do Lobito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Baixa de Kassange or draw
74%
Baixa de Kassange or Académica do Lobito
70%
Draw or Académica do Lobito
56%

Winning margin

Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+
19%
Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals
69%
Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals
32%
Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals
11%
Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
56%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
19%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)
63%
Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baixa de Kassange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baixa de Kassange attack 1.00 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + Baixa de Kassange defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Baixa de Kassange scores more
44%
level
30%
Académica do Lobito scores more
26%

Baixa de Kassange at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Baixa de Kassange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Baixa de Kassange 0–1 Académica do Lobito

Académica do Lobito beat Baixa de Kassange 1-0 in Girabola on January 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio in Malanje.