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Bahrain vs Japan — Asian Cup 2019

Bahrain
Bahrain
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Japan
Japanadvanced
1/31/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Round of 16Al Thumama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bahrain19%
×Draw26%
Japan55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahrain
0.75
Japan
1.50

Japan creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bahrain
0.67
Japan
1.67

allows per match

Bahrain
1.33
Japan
0.83

finishing

Bahrain+0.00on par
Japan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahrain ↓

Japan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bahrain or draw
45%
Bahrain or Japan
74%
Draw or Japan
81%

Winning margin

Bahrain wins by 2+
5%
Japan wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Bahrain 1+ goals
53%
Bahrain 2+ goals
17%
Bahrain 3+ goals
4%
Japan 1+ goals
78%
Japan 2+ goals
44%
Japan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bahrain (draw refunded)
25%
Japan (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahrain at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Japan away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahrain attack 0.67 + Japan defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Japan attack 1.67 + Bahrain defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bahrain scores more
19%
level
26%
Japan scores more
55%

Japan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Japan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asian Cup: Bahrain 1–3 Japan

Japan beat Bahrain 3-1 in Asian Cup on January 31, 2024.

The match was played at Al Thumama Stadium in Doha.