Bahrain 1–2 Cape Verde Islands: Result & Stats

Bahrain

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cape Verde Islands

A. Haram 29' (pen)

R. Mendes 55'

Unknown 12' (OG)

9/23/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bahrain32%

×Draw25%

Cape Verde Islands43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BahrainExpected goals in this matchCape Verde Islands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.49

Bahrain

1.24

Cape Verde Islands

1.49

Cape Verde Islands creates 20% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 11 away

1.56

creates per match

1.82

1.16

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Bahrain

1.56

Cape Verde Islands

1.82

allows per match

Bahrain

1.16

Cape Verde Islands

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahrain+0.00on par

Cape Verde Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahrain ↓

Cape Verde Islands →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bahrain or draw

57%

Bahrain or Cape Verde Islands

75%

Draw or Cape Verde Islands

68%

Winning margin

Bahrain wins by 2+

13%

Cape Verde Islands wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bahrain 1+ goals

71%

Bahrain 2+ goals

35%

Bahrain 3+ goals

13%

Cape Verde Islands 1+ goals

77%

Cape Verde Islands 2+ goals

44%

Cape Verde Islands 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bahrain (draw refunded)

42%

Cape Verde Islands (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bahrain at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Cape Verde Islands away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bahrain attack 1.56 + Cape Verde Islands defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.24

Cape Verde Islands attack 1.82 + Bahrain defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bahrain scores more

32%

level

25%

Cape Verde Islands scores more

43%

Cape Verde Islands at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cape Verde Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

H. Al-Shamsan

12'

Own goal

15'

A. Haram

29'

A. HaramPenalty

51'

55'

R. Mendes

78'

80'

Bahrain

Cape

Manager: M. Soukup

Manager: Bubista