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Bahrain vs Belarus — Friendlies 2026

Bahrain
Bahrain
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Belarus
Belarus
A. Solovey 45+1'
3/29/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bahrain34%
×Draw27%
Belarus38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahrain
1.19
Belarus
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 16 away

creates per match

Bahrain
1.56
Belarus
1.38

allows per match

Bahrain
1.16
Belarus
0.81

finishing

Bahrain+0.00on par
Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahrain ↓

Belarus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bahrain or draw
62%
Bahrain or Belarus
73%
Draw or Belarus
66%

Winning margin

Bahrain wins by 2+
14%
Belarus wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bahrain 1+ goals
70%
Bahrain 2+ goals
33%
Bahrain 3+ goals
12%
Belarus 1+ goals
72%
Belarus 2+ goals
36%
Belarus 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bahrain (draw refunded)
47%
Belarus (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahrain at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Belarus away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahrain attack 1.56 + Belarus defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.19

Belarus attack 1.38 + Bahrain defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bahrain scores more
34%
level
27%
Belarus scores more
38%

Belarus at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Ruslan Yudenkov
45+1'
A. Solovey
47'
Sayed Issa
56'
Abdulwahab Al Malood← Mohammed Al Hardan
67'
D. Nechaev← V. Klimovich
68'
G. Shevchenko← M. Ebong
72'
Ali Madan← Mahdi Al Humaidan
81'
V. Gromyko← D. Bessmertny
81'
R. Yuzepchuk← D. Podstrelov
85'
P. Sedko← A. Bykov
85'
I. Bakhar← A. Solovey
86'
Mahdi Abduljabbar← Sayed Reda Issa

Shots

1Bahrain

Statistics

BahrainBelarus
Overview
1Total Shots6
2Corners3
4Fouls7
Shots
1Total Shots6
1On Target3
0Off Target3
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
4Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
4Offsides4

Match Recap: Bahrain vs Belarus

Belarus beat Bahrain 1-0 in Friendlies on March 29, 2022.

Goals: A. Solovey (45+1').

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.