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Bahrain U20 vs Palestine U20 — Friendlies 2026

Bahrain U20
Bahrain U20
FT
3 – 2
Palestine U20
Palestine U20
7/15/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bahrain U2037%
×Draw26%
Palestine U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahrain U20
1.33
Palestine U20
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bahrain U20
1.33
Palestine U20
1.33

allows per match

Bahrain U20
1.33
Palestine U20
1.33

finishing

Bahrain U20+0.00on par
Palestine U20+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahrain U20 ↓

Palestine U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bahrain U20 or draw
63%
Bahrain U20 or Palestine U20
74%
Draw or Palestine U20
63%

Winning margin

Bahrain U20 wins by 2+
17%
Palestine U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bahrain U20 1+ goals
74%
Bahrain U20 2+ goals
38%
Bahrain U20 3+ goals
15%
Palestine U20 1+ goals
74%
Palestine U20 2+ goals
38%
Palestine U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bahrain U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Palestine U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahrain U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Palestine U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahrain U20 attack 1.33 + Palestine U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Palestine U20 attack 1.33 + Bahrain U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bahrain U20 scores more
37%
level
26%
Palestine U20 scores more
37%

Bahrain U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bahrain U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bahrain U20 vs Palestine U20

Bahrain U20 beat Palestine U20 3-2 in Friendlies on July 15, 2026.