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Bahrain U17 vs China PR U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2026

Bahrain U17
Bahrain U17
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
China PR U17
China PR U17
11/22/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bahrain U1733%
×Draw19%
China PR U1748%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahrain U17
2.25
China PR U17
2.71

China PR U17 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bahrain U17
4.00
China PR U17
3.75

allows per match

Bahrain U17
1.67
China PR U17
0.50

finishing

Bahrain U17+0.00on par
China PR U17+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahrain U17 ↓

China PR U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Bahrain U17 or draw
52%
Bahrain U17 or China PR U17
81%
Draw or China PR U17
67%

Winning margin

Bahrain U17 wins by 2+
18%
China PR U17 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Bahrain U17 1+ goals
89%
Bahrain U17 2+ goals
65%
Bahrain U17 3+ goals
39%
China PR U17 1+ goals
93%
China PR U17 2+ goals
75%
China PR U17 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Bahrain U17 (draw refunded)
41%
China PR U17 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahrain U17 at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

China PR U17 away — creates 3.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahrain U17 attack 4.00 + China PR U17 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

China PR U17 attack 3.75 + Bahrain U17 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bahrain U17 scores more
33%
level
19%
China PR U17 scores more
48%

China PR U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "China PR U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bahrain U17 vs China PR U17

China PR U17 beat Bahrain U17 4-0 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on November 22, 2025.