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Bahrain U17 vs Brunei U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2026

Bahrain U17
Bahrain U17
FT
10 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Brunei U17
Brunei U17
11/30/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bahrain U1797%
×Draw2%
Brunei U171%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahrain U17
7.00
Brunei U17
0.83

Bahrain U17 creates 743% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bahrain U17
4.00
Brunei U17
0.00

allows per match

Bahrain U17
1.67
Brunei U17
10.00

finishing

Bahrain U17+0.00on par
Brunei U17+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahrain U17 ↓

Brunei U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 38% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
89%11%4.5
76%24%

Double chance

Bahrain U17 or draw
99%
Bahrain U17 or Brunei U17
98%
Draw or Brunei U17
3%

Winning margin

Bahrain U17 wins by 2+
92%
Brunei U17 wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Bahrain U17 1+ goals
100%
Bahrain U17 2+ goals
98%
Bahrain U17 3+ goals
93%
Brunei U17 1+ goals
56%
Brunei U17 2+ goals
20%
Brunei U17 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bahrain U17 (draw refunded)
99%
Brunei U17 (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahrain U17 at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Brunei U17 away — creates 0.00, concedes 10.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahrain U17 attack 4.00 + Brunei U17 defence 10.00 → ÷2 → 7.00

Brunei U17 attack 0.00 + Bahrain U17 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

Bahrain U17 scores more
97%
level
2%
Brunei U17 scores more
1%

Bahrain U17 at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Bahrain U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bahrain U17 vs Brunei U17

Bahrain U17 beat Brunei U17 10-0 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on November 30, 2025.