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Bahla vs Oman Club — Professional League 2019

Bahla
Bahla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Oman Club
Oman Club
4/27/2026Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Bahla38%
×Draw28%
Oman Club33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahla
1.20
Oman Club
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 79 away

creates per match

Bahla
1.27
Oman Club
1.04

allows per match

Bahla
1.16
Oman Club
1.13

finishing

Bahla+0.00on par
Oman Club+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahla ↓

Oman Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bahla or draw
67%
Bahla or Oman Club
72%
Draw or Oman Club
62%

Winning margin

Bahla wins by 2+
16%
Oman Club wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bahla 1+ goals
70%
Bahla 2+ goals
34%
Bahla 3+ goals
12%
Oman Club 1+ goals
67%
Oman Club 2+ goals
30%
Oman Club 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bahla (draw refunded)
53%
Oman Club (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahla at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

Oman Club away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahla attack 1.27 + Oman Club defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Oman Club attack 1.04 + Bahla defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bahla scores more
38%
level
28%
Oman Club scores more
33%

Bahla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bahla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bahla vs Oman Club

Bahla and Oman Club drew 1-1 in Professional League on April 27, 2026.