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Bahla vs Nizwa — Professional League 2019

Bahla
Bahla
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nizwa
Nizwa
5/14/2022Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 26Nizwa Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bahla59%
×Draw24%
Nizwa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahla
1.67
Nizwa
0.78

Bahla creates 114% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bahla
1.27
Nizwa
0.41

allows per match

Bahla
1.16
Nizwa
2.06

finishing

Bahla+0.00on par
Nizwa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahla ↓

Nizwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bahla or draw
83%
Bahla or Nizwa
76%
Draw or Nizwa
41%

Winning margin

Bahla wins by 2+
32%
Nizwa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bahla 1+ goals
81%
Bahla 2+ goals
50%
Bahla 3+ goals
23%
Nizwa 1+ goals
54%
Nizwa 2+ goals
18%
Nizwa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bahla (draw refunded)
77%
Nizwa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahla at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

Nizwa away — creates 0.41, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahla attack 1.27 + Nizwa defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.67

Nizwa attack 0.41 + Bahla defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bahla scores more
59%
level
24%
Nizwa scores more
17%

Bahla at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bahla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bahla 4 – 1 Nizwa

Bahla beat Nizwa 4-1 in Professional League on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Nizwa Sports Complex in Nizwa.