Bahia W 1–3 Real Ariquemes W: Result & Stats

Bahia W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Real Ariquemes W

5/7/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bahia W73%

×Draw15%

Real Ariquemes W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bahia WExpected goals in this matchReal Ariquemes W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.84

1.10

Bahia W

2.84

Real Ariquemes W

1.10

Bahia W creates 158% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 8 away

1.80

creates per match

0.50

1.70

allows per match

3.88

creates per match

Bahia W

1.80

Real Ariquemes W

0.50

allows per match

Bahia W

1.70

Real Ariquemes W

3.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia W+0.00on par

Real Ariquemes W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia W ↓

Real Ariquemes W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Bahia W or draw

88%

Bahia W or Real Ariquemes W

85%

Draw or Real Ariquemes W

27%

Winning margin

Bahia W wins by 2+

52%

Real Ariquemes W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bahia W 1+ goals

94%

Bahia W 2+ goals

77%

Bahia W 3+ goals

53%

Real Ariquemes W 1+ goals

67%

Real Ariquemes W 2+ goals

30%

Real Ariquemes W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bahia W (draw refunded)

86%

Real Ariquemes W (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Real Ariquemes W away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia W attack 1.80 + Real Ariquemes W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.84

Real Ariquemes W attack 0.50 + Bahia W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Bahia W scores more

73%

level

15%

Real Ariquemes W scores more

12%

Bahia W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Bahia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff