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Bahia vs Maranhão — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Bahia
Bahia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maranhão
Maranhão
3/24/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 7Arena Fonte Nova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bahia67%
×Draw19%
Maranhão14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia
2.17
Maranhão
0.88

Bahia creates 147% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bahia
2.33
Maranhão
1.00

allows per match

Bahia
0.76
Maranhão
2.00

finishing

Bahia+0.00on par
Maranhão+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia ↓

Maranhão →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bahia or draw
86%
Bahia or Maranhão
81%
Draw or Maranhão
33%

Winning margin

Bahia wins by 2+
43%
Maranhão wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bahia 1+ goals
89%
Bahia 2+ goals
64%
Bahia 3+ goals
36%
Maranhão 1+ goals
59%
Maranhão 2+ goals
22%
Maranhão 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bahia (draw refunded)
83%
Maranhão (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Maranhão away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia attack 2.33 + Maranhão defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Maranhão attack 1.00 + Bahia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Bahia scores more
67%
level
19%
Maranhão scores more
14%

Bahia at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Bahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: Bahia 1–0 Maranhão

Bahia beat Maranhão 1-0 in Copa do Nordeste on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador, Bahia.