Bahia 1–1 Atletico Paranaense: Result & Stats

Bahia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Paranaense

11/12/2023

Serie A · Round 34Arena Fonte Nova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bahia50%

×Draw28%

Atletico Paranaense22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BahiaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.79

Bahia

1.36

Atletico Paranaense

0.79

Bahia creates 72% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

1.38

creates per match

0.77

0.81

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Bahia

1.38

Atletico Paranaense

0.77

allows per match

Bahia

0.81

Atletico Paranaense

1.34

+0.62scores more than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Bahia+0.62scores more

Atletico Paranaense+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bahia or draw

78%

Bahia or Atletico Paranaense

72%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

50%

Winning margin

Bahia wins by 2+

24%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bahia 1+ goals

74%

Bahia 2+ goals

39%

Bahia 3+ goals

16%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

55%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

19%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bahia (draw refunded)

70%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.81 · 15 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.34 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia attack 1.38 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.77 + Bahia defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bahia scores more

50%

level

28%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

22%

Bahia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff