Bahia 3–0 America-RN: Result & Stats

Bahia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

America-RN

2/15/2024

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 3Arena Fonte Nova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bahia66%

×Draw20%

America-RN14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BahiaExpected goals in this matchAmerica-RN

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.84

Bahia

2.10

America-RN

0.84

Bahia creates 150% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 14 away

2.33

creates per match

0.93

0.76

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Bahia

2.33

America-RN

0.93

allows per match

Bahia

0.76

America-RN

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia+0.00on par

America-RN+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia ↓

America-RN →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bahia or draw

86%

Bahia or America-RN

80%

Draw or America-RN

34%

Winning margin

Bahia wins by 2+

42%

America-RN wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bahia 1+ goals

88%

Bahia 2+ goals

62%

Bahia 3+ goals

35%

America-RN 1+ goals

57%

America-RN 2+ goals

21%

America-RN 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bahia (draw refunded)

83%

America-RN (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

America-RN away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia attack 2.33 + America-RN defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.10

America-RN attack 0.93 + Bahia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bahia scores more

66%

level

20%

America-RN scores more

14%

Bahia at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff