Bahia U20 4–1 Itabuna EC U20: Result & Stats

Bahia U20

FT

4 – 1

Itabuna EC U20

5/31/2024

Baiano U20 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bahia U2081%

×Draw12%

Itabuna EC U207%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bahia U20Expected goals in this matchItabuna EC U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.15

0.88

Bahia U20

3.15

Itabuna EC U20

0.88

Bahia U20 creates 258% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 6 away

4.97

creates per match

1.00

0.76

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Bahia U20

4.97

Itabuna EC U20

1.00

allows per match

Bahia U20

0.76

Itabuna EC U20

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia U20+0.00on par

Itabuna EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U20 ↓

Itabuna EC U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Bahia U20 or draw

93%

Bahia U20 or Itabuna EC U20

88%

Draw or Itabuna EC U20

19%

Winning margin

Bahia U20 wins by 2+

62%

Itabuna EC U20 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Bahia U20 1+ goals

96%

Bahia U20 2+ goals

81%

Bahia U20 3+ goals

59%

Itabuna EC U20 1+ goals

59%

Itabuna EC U20 2+ goals

22%

Itabuna EC U20 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bahia U20 (draw refunded)

92%

Itabuna EC U20 (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U20 at home — creates 4.97, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

Itabuna EC U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U20 attack 4.97 + Itabuna EC U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 3.15

Itabuna EC U20 attack 1.00 + Bahia U20 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Bahia U20 scores more

81%

level

12%

Itabuna EC U20 scores more

7%

Bahia U20 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Bahia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff