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Bahia U20 vs Atlético Alagoinhas U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Bahia U20
Bahia U20
FT
1 – 2
Atlético Alagoinhas U20
Atlético Alagoinhas U20
4/19/2025Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 4CT Evaristo de Macedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bahia U2085%
×Draw9%
Atlético Alagoinhas U205%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia U20
3.61
Atlético Alagoinhas U20
0.87

Bahia U20 creates 315% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bahia U20
4.89
Atlético Alagoinhas U20
0.95

allows per match

Bahia U20
0.79
Atlético Alagoinhas U20
2.33

finishing

Bahia U20+0.00on par
Atlético Alagoinhas U20+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U20 ↓

Atlético Alagoinhas U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Bahia U20 or draw
95%
Bahia U20 or Atlético Alagoinhas U20
91%
Draw or Atlético Alagoinhas U20
15%

Winning margin

Bahia U20 wins by 2+
69%
Atlético Alagoinhas U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bahia U20 1+ goals
97%
Bahia U20 2+ goals
87%
Bahia U20 3+ goals
67%
Atlético Alagoinhas U20 1+ goals
58%
Atlético Alagoinhas U20 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Alagoinhas U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bahia U20 (draw refunded)
94%
Atlético Alagoinhas U20 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U20 at home — creates 4.89, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Atlético Alagoinhas U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U20 attack 4.89 + Atlético Alagoinhas U20 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.61

Atlético Alagoinhas U20 attack 0.95 + Bahia U20 defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Bahia U20 scores more
85%
level
9%
Atlético Alagoinhas U20 scores more
5%

Bahia U20 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Bahia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Bahia U20 1–2 Atlético Alagoinhas U20

Atlético Alagoinhas U20 beat Bahia U20 2-1 in Baiano U20 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at CT Evaristo de Macedo in Lauro de Freitas, Bahia.