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Bahia U17 vs Santos U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Bahia U17
Bahia U17
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santos U17
Santos U17
6/16/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bahia U1739%
×Draw23%
Santos U1739%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia U17
1.69
Santos U17
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bahia U17
1.61
Santos U17
1.38

allows per match

Bahia U17
2.00
Santos U17
1.76

finishing

Bahia U17+0.00on par
Santos U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U17 ↓

Santos U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bahia U17 or draw
61%
Bahia U17 or Santos U17
77%
Draw or Santos U17
61%

Winning margin

Bahia U17 wins by 2+
20%
Santos U17 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bahia U17 1+ goals
82%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
50%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
24%
Santos U17 1+ goals
82%
Santos U17 2+ goals
50%
Santos U17 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
50%
Santos U17 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U17 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Santos U17 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U17 attack 1.61 + Santos U17 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Santos U17 attack 1.38 + Bahia U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bahia U17 scores more
39%
level
23%
Santos U17 scores more
39%

Bahia U17 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bahia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bahia U17 vs Santos U17

Santos U17 beat Bahia U17 1-0 in Brasileiro U17 on June 16, 2026.