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Bahia U17 vs RB Bragantino U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Bahia U17
Bahia U17
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
RB Bragantino U17
RB Bragantino U17
G. Souza 55'
Chrys 90+1'
Daniel 41'
7/23/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 4Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bahia U1731%
×Draw22%
RB Bragantino U1747%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia U17
1.58
RB Bragantino U17
1.98

RB Bragantino U17 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Bahia U17
1.61
RB Bragantino U17
1.95

allows per match

Bahia U17
2.00
RB Bragantino U17
1.55

finishing

Bahia U17+0.00on par
RB Bragantino U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U17 ↓

RB Bragantino U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bahia U17 or draw
53%
Bahia U17 or RB Bragantino U17
78%
Draw or RB Bragantino U17
69%

Winning margin

Bahia U17 wins by 2+
15%
RB Bragantino U17 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Bahia U17 1+ goals
79%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
47%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
21%
RB Bragantino U17 1+ goals
86%
RB Bragantino U17 2+ goals
59%
RB Bragantino U17 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
40%
RB Bragantino U17 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U17 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

RB Bragantino U17 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U17 attack 1.61 + RB Bragantino U17 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

RB Bragantino U17 attack 1.95 + Bahia U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bahia U17 scores more
31%
level
22%
RB Bragantino U17 scores more
47%

RB Bragantino U17 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RB Bragantino U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
Daniel
55'
G. Souza
90+1'
Chrys

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bahia U17 vs RB Bragantino U17

RB Bragantino U17 beat Bahia U17 2-1 in Brasileiro U17 on July 23, 2024.

Goals: Daniel (41'), G. Souza (55'), Chrys (90+1').

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.