Bahia U17 0–2 Fluminense U17: Result & Stats

Bahia U17

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fluminense U17

Arthur Ryan 62'

A. Bernardo 45'

5/27/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 3CT Evaristo de Macedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bahia U1735%

×Draw23%

Fluminense U1742%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bahia U17Expected goals in this matchFluminense U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.75

Bahia U17

1.56

Fluminense U17

1.75

Fluminense U17 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.61

creates per match

1.50

2.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bahia U17

1.61

Fluminense U17

1.50

allows per match

Bahia U17

2.00

Fluminense U17

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia U17+0.00on par

Fluminense U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U17 ↓

Fluminense U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bahia U17 or draw

58%

Bahia U17 or Fluminense U17

77%

Draw or Fluminense U17

65%

Winning margin

Bahia U17 wins by 2+

17%

Fluminense U17 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Bahia U17 1+ goals

79%

Bahia U17 2+ goals

46%

Bahia U17 3+ goals

21%

Fluminense U17 1+ goals

83%

Fluminense U17 2+ goals

52%

Fluminense U17 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bahia U17 (draw refunded)

45%

Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U17 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Fluminense U17 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U17 attack 1.61 + Fluminense U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Fluminense U17 attack 1.50 + Bahia U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bahia U17 scores more

35%

level

23%

Fluminense U17 scores more

42%

Fluminense U17 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fluminense U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

A. Bernardo

62'

Arthur Ryan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff