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Bahia U17 vs Athletico PR U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Bahia U17
Bahia U17
Preview
20:00
Athletico PR U17
Athletico PR U17
8/11/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 11
41%
Athletico PR U17
model favours
36%23%41%

Athletico PR U17 score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bahia U1736%
×Draw23%
Athletico PR U1741%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia U17
1.66
Athletico PR U17
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bahia U17
1.61
Athletico PR U17
1.59

allows per match

Bahia U17
2.00
Athletico PR U17
1.71

finishing

Bahia U17+0.00on par
Athletico PR U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U17 ↓

Athletico PR U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bahia U17 or draw
59%
Bahia U17 or Athletico PR U17
77%
Draw or Athletico PR U17
64%

Winning margin

Bahia U17 wins by 2+
18%
Athletico PR U17 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bahia U17 1+ goals
81%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
49%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
23%
Athletico PR U17 1+ goals
83%
Athletico PR U17 2+ goals
53%
Athletico PR U17 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
47%
Athletico PR U17 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U17 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Athletico PR U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U17 attack 1.61 + Athletico PR U17 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Athletico PR U17 attack 1.59 + Bahia U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bahia U17 scores more
36%
level
23%
Athletico PR U17 scores more
41%

Athletico PR U17 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Athletico PR U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bahia U17 score first in only 7% of matches
  • Athletico PR U17 have won 3 in a row
  • 77% of Athletico PR U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (63% and 77% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 77% of Athletico PR U17’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
DLWLW
U17
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bahia U17 host Athletico PR U17

August 11, 2026: Bahia U17 take on Athletico PR U17 in Brasileiro U17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.