Athletico PR U17 vs Bahia U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Athletico PR U1770%
Bahia U1713%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Athletico PR U17 creates 151% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over69
- Under31
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Athletico PR U17 ↓
Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Athletico PR U17 at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches
Bahia U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Athletico PR U17 attack 2.95 + Bahia U17 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.56
Bahia U17 attack 0.67 + Athletico PR U17 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 70%?"
Athletico PR U17 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 70% does not mean "Athletico PR U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
Corinthians U17
RB Bragantino U17Athletico PR U17
Cruzeiro U17
Flamengo RJ U17
Fluminense U17
Sao Paulo U17Bahia U17
Botafogo U17
America MG U17
Santos U17
Internacional U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
Juventude U17
Vitoria U17
Palmeiras U17
Vasco U17
Fortaleza U17
Atletico GO U17
Gremio U17If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Athletico PR U17 host Bahia U17 on Wednesday, 25 June 2025 at 18:00. The match is part of the Brasileiro U17 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Athletico PR U17 vs Bahia U17
Athletico PR U17 beat Bahia U17 6-1 in Brasileiro U17 on June 25, 2025.
Goals: D. Alves (21', 26'), Rhichey (52'), V. Rodrigues (55'), J. Farias (57'), Bruninho (59'), R. Bayer De Souza (80').
The match was played at CT do Caju- Centro de Treinamentos Alfredo Gottardi in Curitiba, Paraná.