Bahia de Feira 7–0 Teixeira de Freitas

Bahia de Feira

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Teixeira de Freitas

Patrick Carvalho 88', 53', 23'

Dodo 81'

Arthur Martins 45+3', 4'

Alex Cazumba 42'

4/30/2025

Baiano - 2 · Round 1Estádio Jodilton Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bahia de Feira92%

×Draw6%

Teixeira de Freitas2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bahia de FeiraExpected goals in this matchTeixeira de Freitas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.41

0.35

Bahia de Feira

3.41

Teixeira de Freitas

0.35

Bahia de Feira creates 874% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

3.57

creates per match

0.00

0.71

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Bahia de Feira

3.57

Teixeira de Freitas

0.00

allows per match

Bahia de Feira

0.71

Teixeira de Freitas

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia de Feira+0.00on par

Teixeira de Freitas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia de Feira ↓

Teixeira de Freitas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–016%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–014%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (16%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bahia de Feira or draw

98%

Bahia de Feira or Teixeira de Freitas

94%

Draw or Teixeira de Freitas

8%

Winning margin

Bahia de Feira wins by 2+

77%

Teixeira de Freitas wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Bahia de Feira 1+ goals

96%

Bahia de Feira 2+ goals

85%

Bahia de Feira 3+ goals

64%

Teixeira de Freitas 1+ goals

30%

Teixeira de Freitas 2+ goals

5%

Teixeira de Freitas 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Bahia de Feira (draw refunded)

98%

Teixeira de Freitas (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia de Feira at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Teixeira de Freitas away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia de Feira attack 3.57 + Teixeira de Freitas defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.41

Teixeira de Freitas attack 0.00 + Bahia de Feira defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Bahia de Feira scores more

92%

level

6%

Teixeira de Freitas scores more

2%

Bahia de Feira at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Bahia de Feira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Arthur Martins

23'

Patrick Carvalho

42'

Alex Cazumba

45+3'

Arthur Martins

53'

Patrick Carvalho

81'

Dodo

88'

Patrick Carvalho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff