Bahia de Feira 3–1 Serrano PB: Result & Stats

Bahia de Feira

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Serrano PB

5/11/2019

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Jodilton Souza (Feira de Santana, Bahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bahia de Feira82%

×Draw12%

Serrano PB6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bahia de FeiraExpected goals in this matchSerrano PB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

0.61

Bahia de Feira

2.81

Serrano PB

0.61

Bahia de Feira creates 361% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 3 away

1.61

creates per match

0.33

0.89

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Bahia de Feira

1.61

Serrano PB

0.33

allows per match

Bahia de Feira

0.89

Serrano PB

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia de Feira+0.00on par

Serrano PB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia de Feira ↓

Serrano PB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bahia de Feira or draw

94%

Bahia de Feira or Serrano PB

88%

Draw or Serrano PB

18%

Winning margin

Bahia de Feira wins by 2+

62%

Serrano PB wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Bahia de Feira 1+ goals

94%

Bahia de Feira 2+ goals

76%

Bahia de Feira 3+ goals

52%

Serrano PB 1+ goals

46%

Serrano PB 2+ goals

13%

Serrano PB 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Bahia de Feira (draw refunded)

94%

Serrano PB (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia de Feira at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

Serrano PB away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia de Feira attack 1.61 + Serrano PB defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.81

Serrano PB attack 0.33 + Bahia de Feira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Bahia de Feira scores more

82%

level

12%

Serrano PB scores more

6%

Bahia de Feira at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Bahia de Feira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff