Bahia de Feira 0–1 São Bernardo: Result & Stats

Bahia de Feira

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

São Bernardo

8/6/2022

Serie D · Round of 16Estádio Jodilton Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bahia de Feira41%

×Draw32%

São Bernardo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bahia de FeiraExpected goals in this matchSão Bernardo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.77

Bahia de Feira

1.03

São Bernardo

0.77

Bahia de Feira creates 34% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 11 away

1.61

creates per match

0.64

0.89

allows per match

0.45

creates per match

Bahia de Feira

1.61

São Bernardo

0.64

allows per match

Bahia de Feira

0.89

São Bernardo

0.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia de Feira+0.00on par

São Bernardo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia de Feira ↓

São Bernardo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bahia de Feira or draw

73%

Bahia de Feira or São Bernardo

68%

Draw or São Bernardo

59%

Winning margin

Bahia de Feira wins by 2+

16%

São Bernardo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bahia de Feira 1+ goals

64%

Bahia de Feira 2+ goals

28%

Bahia de Feira 3+ goals

9%

São Bernardo 1+ goals

54%

São Bernardo 2+ goals

18%

São Bernardo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bahia de Feira (draw refunded)

60%

São Bernardo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia de Feira at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

São Bernardo away — creates 0.64, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia de Feira attack 1.61 + São Bernardo defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.03

São Bernardo attack 0.64 + Bahia de Feira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bahia de Feira scores more

41%

level

32%

São Bernardo scores more

27%

Bahia de Feira at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bahia de Feira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff