Bahia de Feira 1–0 ASA: Result & Stats | Serie D

Bahia de Feira

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ASA

7/25/2021

Serie D · Round 8Estádio Jodilton Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bahia de Feira48%

×Draw27%

ASA25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bahia de FeiraExpected goals in this matchASA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.92

Bahia de Feira

1.38

ASA

0.92

Bahia de Feira creates 50% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 57 away

1.61

creates per match

0.95

0.89

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Bahia de Feira

1.61

ASA

0.95

allows per match

Bahia de Feira

0.89

ASA

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia de Feira+0.00on par

ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia de Feira ↓

ASA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bahia de Feira or draw

75%

Bahia de Feira or ASA

73%

Draw or ASA

52%

Winning margin

Bahia de Feira wins by 2+

23%

ASA wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bahia de Feira 1+ goals

75%

Bahia de Feira 2+ goals

40%

Bahia de Feira 3+ goals

16%

ASA 1+ goals

60%

ASA 2+ goals

23%

ASA 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bahia de Feira (draw refunded)

65%

ASA (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia de Feira at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

ASA away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.14 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia de Feira attack 1.61 + ASA defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

ASA attack 0.95 + Bahia de Feira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bahia de Feira scores more

48%

level

27%

ASA scores more

25%

Bahia de Feira at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bahia de Feira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff