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Bahia de Feira vs América PE — Serie D 2018

Bahia de Feira
Bahia de Feira
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
América PE
América PE
6/9/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 6Estádio Jodilton Souza (Feira de Santana, Bahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bahia de Feira57%
×Draw21%
América PE22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia de Feira
2.06
América PE
1.20

Bahia de Feira creates 72% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bahia de Feira
1.61
América PE
1.50

allows per match

Bahia de Feira
0.89
América PE
2.50

finishing

Bahia de Feira+0.00on par
América PE+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia de Feira ↓

América PE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bahia de Feira or draw
78%
Bahia de Feira or América PE
79%
Draw or América PE
43%

Winning margin

Bahia de Feira wins by 2+
34%
América PE wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bahia de Feira 1+ goals
87%
Bahia de Feira 2+ goals
61%
Bahia de Feira 3+ goals
34%
América PE 1+ goals
70%
América PE 2+ goals
34%
América PE 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bahia de Feira (draw refunded)
72%
América PE (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia de Feira at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

América PE away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia de Feira attack 1.61 + América PE defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

América PE attack 1.50 + Bahia de Feira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bahia de Feira scores more
57%
level
21%
América PE scores more
22%

Bahia de Feira at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bahia de Feira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Bahia de Feira 3–1 América PE

Bahia de Feira beat América PE 3-1 in Serie D on June 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Jodilton Souza (Feira de Santana, Bahia).